In its benchmark annual Energy Outlook, BP forecast a 100 fold growth in electric vehicles (EVs) by 2040, with its chief economist Spencer Dale painting a world in which we travel much more but instead of using private cars, we increasingly share trips in autonomous vehicles.
While travel demand more than doubles over the period as economies in countries such as China and India grow, higher oil demand will be more than offset by increased engine efficiency standards as well as the larger number of EVs and shared travelling.
Unlike many other forecasts, including previous BP Energy Outlooks, which looked solely at the growing share of EVs in the car fleet, BP this year focused on the share of vehicles kilometres powered by electricity. Under BP's Evolving Transition scenario, which assumes that policies and technology continue to evolve at a speed similar to that seen in the recent past, some 30 per cent of car kilometres are powered by electricity by 2040 from almost zero in 2016.
At the same time, the number of EVs is set to increase from 3 million today to over 320 million by 2040, representing roughly 15 per cent out of a total car fleet of 2 billion.
The gap between the increasing number of EVs on the road and the kilometres powered by electricity is due to the expected growth in so-called shared mobility by EVs, Dale said.
"Cars will be used much more intensely over time," Dale told reporters in a briefing on Monday ahead of the release of the report on Tuesday.
As a result, fuel demand from the car fleet is forecast to dip to 18.6 million barrels per day in 2040 from 18.7 million bpd in 2016, when it represented around one fifth of total oil demand, according to BP.
Source Link: timesofoman.com